According to a report issued by the China Iron and Steel Association, due to the rapid and large increase in steel prices since April, the downstream steel industries such as shipbuilding and home appliances cannot withstand the continuous high consolidation of steel prices, and the subsequent sharp rise in steel prices is difficult.
According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in April, the demand for steel in the domestic market was strong, and the price of steel continued to rise, and the increase was greater than the previous month. Since entering May, affected by the rising market expectations, the price increase of steel products has further increased after the “May Day” holiday, but it has fallen sharply in the third week.
The China Iron and Steel Association predicts that due to the combined effects of rising international commodity prices, loose global liquidity, and rising market expectations, steel prices in the domestic market will rise sharply after the “May 1st” holiday. In the later period, affected by the expected decline and increased national supervision, steel prices are expected to gradually stabilize after adjustment.
Domestic demand is generally strong, and the supply and demand situation in the later period is basically stable
According to the China Iron and Steel Association, from the perspective of the international market, the current round of price increases is the result of multiple factors such as the gradual recovery of the global economy, the strengthening of market expectations, ample liquidity, and speculation. From the perspective of the domestic market, there has been no overall or trending change at both ends of the supply and demand of steel products, and the price of steel does not have the basis for a sustained and substantial increase. Affected by the “three red lines” of real estate in the construction industry and “two concentrations” of land supply policies and measures, and the South is about to enter the high temperature and rainy season, infrastructure construction will slow down, as well as the shortage of automotive chips, the home appliance industry enters the off-season and other factors, steel demand There may be a certain weakening, but the supply and demand ends are basically stable.
Steel production remains at a relatively high level, and steel prices are unlikely to rise sharply
According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, in early May, the daily crude steel production (same caliber) of key steel companies increased by 0.75% month-on-month, and it is estimated that the country’s crude steel output increased by 0.40% month-on-month. From the perspective of the supply-side situation, the “looking back” of iron and steel capacity reduction, the reduction of crude steel output, and environmental supervision are about to start, and it is difficult for the crude steel output to increase significantly in the later period. From the demand side, due to the rapid and large increase in steel prices since April, the downstream steel industries such as shipbuilding and home appliances cannot withstand the continuous high consolidation of steel prices, and the later steel prices cannot continue to rise sharply.
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